The most important methods of trend analysis
There are a number of proven methods for detecting, evaluating and forecasting trends.
Each has its own strengths and is suitable for different areas of application.
1st method: Desk research (secondary research)
The simplest and at the same time most effective method for identifying trends is desk research.
Existing data and information is analyzed, such as
- Market studies
- industry reports
- Social media analyses
- Publications from research institutes
Advantage: Inexpensive and quick to carry out. Disadvantage: Dependent on the quality of the available data.
2nd method: Delphi method
The Delphi method is a structured approach in which expert opinions are collected and evaluated in several rounds of interviews.
The aim is to create a well-founded forecast through consensus building.
Area of application: Particularly suitable for long-term forecasts in uncertain or dynamic markets.
Advantage:
High level of expertise and broad access to knowledge.
Disadvantage:
Time-consuming and dependent on the selection of experts.
3rd method: trend scouting
Trend scouting is based on the active observation of changes in society.
Trend scouts analyze behaviors, new products, technologies and cultural movements on location, e.g. in cities such as Tokyo, London or Berlin, which are often considered trend hotspots.
Advantage:
Direct access to early signals (“weak signals”).
Disadvantage:
Subjectivity and limited reach.
4th method: Data analysis and big data
With the increase in digital data volumes, data-driven approaches to trend analysis have become indispensable.
Big data technologies and AI algorithms are used to analyze large volumes of data in order to identify patterns and correlations.
Examples include search engine trends, social media interactions and sales statistics.
Advantage: Precise analysis and fast processing of large amounts of data. Disadvantage: Requires technical expertise and access to high-quality data sources.
5th method: Surveys
Surveys are a direct and effective method for capturing the opinions, preferences and behavioral patterns of target groups.
They provide valuable insights into current developments and help to identify emerging trends at an early stage.
Surveys can be conducted both offline and online, which increases their reach and flexibility.
Areas of application: Surveys are suitable for asking specific questions about new products, services or social changes.
Advantage:
Direct insights from the target group, fast and scalable results through online platforms.
Disadvantage:
The quality of the results depends heavily on the wording of the questions and the composition of the target group.
6th method: Scenario technique
The scenario technique creates possible future scenarios based on various assumptions.
The aim is to evaluate the effects of trends in different contexts.
Area of application: Strategic planning, especially in uncertain markets.
Advantage:
Consideration of several future options.
Disadvantage:
Results are not concrete predictions, but thought models.
7th method: PESTEL analysis
This method examines trends in six key areas: political, economic, social, technological, environmental and legal framework conditions (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, Legal).
Advantage:
Holistic overview of external influencing factors.
Disadvantage:
Focus on macro trends, less on micro trends.
8th method: Social listening
Social listening monitors and analyzes discussions and opinions in social networks.
Tools such as Brandwatch or Hootsuite help to identify relevant topics and sentiments.
Advantage:
Real-time feedback from a broad user base.
Disadvantage:
Requires skillful interpretation and filtering of data.
The right method for the right purpose
The choice of method depends heavily on the objective being pursued.
While data analyses and social listening quickly reveal measurable trends, scenario techniques and Delphi methods are particularly helpful for long-term decisions.
The combination of several methods is often the key to obtaining a comprehensive picture.
Conclusion: Trend analysis as a strategic superpower
The methods of trend analysis are like a kaleidoscope:
Each individual method provides a perspective, but only their combination provides a complete picture.
Whether it’s about developing innovative products, discovering the next market opportunity or minimizing risks – those who master the right tools have the power not only to react to changes, but to actively shape them.
Because in a world that is constantly changing, one thing remains certain: only those who understand the future will be successful in it.
